Monday, April 27, 2009

10% of Traders go Bankrupt

Mark McRea (creator of Traders Secret Library) touches on a subject that most seasoned traders know, and rookie traders don’t want to hear…most traders fail and a percentage of those failures turn into bankruptcy!

I was thinking about an article I read some time ago that 90% of traders who ever trade lose their account and that 10% actually go bankrupt. If the first number doesn’t scare you then the second definitely should.

Why is it then that there is such a large number of traders failing? It is not because they are stupid; in fact most traders have an above average IQ and are above average in most categories such as education and income. So why do they fail?

Lack of trading education! ( INO TV will help solve this problem!)

By education I don’t just mean learning how RSI works or drawing lines on a chart. I mean thoroughly educating yourself in all aspects of your chosen profession.

Educating yourself on the correct psychological approach to the market! Educating yourself in the correct risk management techniques relative to your account size. Educating yourself in the correct entry and exit methods for the trading style that suits you.

This, my friend, is where I hope to be of some help. I don’t have all the answers nor do I profess to be some kind of guru but I will do my best to point you in the right direction.

Common Misconceptions Of New Traders

*They think they can trade consistently with an 80% accuracy.
*They think they can turn $1000 into $100,000 in six months.
*They think they can predict turning points in their given markets to within minutes.
*They think they can buy a system that is 100% accurate.
*They think they will quit their jobs and make a living full time after a few months of trading.

What’s the reason that so many new traders believe that trading is an easy way to make big profits? Propaganda!

We are continually bombarded in magazines, emails and the general media with claims of making astronomical amounts, just by applying the vendor’s latest method or system.

Don’t get me wrong, there is good stuff out there but the vast majority is not worth the price you pay. In Traders Secret Library I also recommend products but I have at least read the ebooks or courses and think they have some value to my subscribers.

Fundamentals Of Trading

Trading is not an exact science. You can’t do X and get Y every time. It is as much an art as it is anything else. There is no magic formula. Trading is all about probability. It is the art of correctly applying a set of carefully thought out rules and allocating the probability of that event to result in success.

Each trade is an independent event. The market does not remember if you lost or made dollars the last time you traded.

The way you approach the market psychologically has as much to do with your success as any trading plan.

Risk management is crucial if you want to have any hope of becoming a successful trader.

Matching a method of trading with your personality is the only way you will ever feel comfortable in the markets.

An adequately funded account is necessary - not only to be able to take the trades you want, but also so you don’t feel every trade is a live or die situation.

The journey to the road of successful trading will make you confront your deepest fears. Your armor on this journey will be confidence, knowledge and belief in yourself that you can achieve your dreams.

Never, equate your success or failure in the markets with who you are as a person!

The Flaw In Our Emotions

As humans we have a natural tendency to try and influence our surroundings and events we take part in. This is one reason we, as a species, have succeeded but it is also one of the fundamental flaws we all have when trying to achieve success as a traders.

As traders we have to realize we have no control over the market and if we accept that then we have to accept that we can not influence the direction of the market.

The problem of course is we have a tendency to try and succeed and when inevitable losses come, it is easy to let those losses effect us emotionally. Becoming euphoric when you hit a winning streak is almost as detrimental as becoming depressed when you have a string of losses.

We as traders have to try and achieve the state of impartiality. We have to accept that we will have losses as readily as we will have wins. Reaching the stage where you can comfortably accept loss in the knowledge that your method of trading will produce profits in the longer term is the state we have to aspire to.

Risk Management

Whenever I think of risk management I always think of an article I read on 925 CTA programs between 1974-1995. It essentially confirmed what I have long held to be true. To summarize the report, of all the CTA’s who managed funds, the most consistently profitable were the ones with the best risk management systems.

To trade successfully you have to take a long look at yourself. Ask and answer the following questions.

How much equity do I need to start? How much should I risk on any one trade? Am I undercapitalized?

During the course of these lessons I will do my best to help answer these and other questions.

Entry And Exit

As a trader you will probably fall into two main categories, traders who like to trade the breakout and traders who like to join the trend once established. We could also add congestion traders, reversal type traders and mechanical signal traders but for the vast majority of traders you are going to fall into one of the two categories.

If you are a trend trader, you like to define a trend and then find a way in. This may be with the aid of fibonacci retracement levels, moving averages, Gann or one of the other many indicators available today. Your goal is to enter the trend as early as possible with the least amount of risk.

Breakout traders like to enter the market on the breakout of a previously identified range. This may be support/resistance areas, rectangles, triangles or one of the many other chart patterns. The secret to this type of trading is to determine a valid break.

In future lessons we shall begin to look at the more technical side of trading and how you can apply technical analysis to the markets to increase your probability of success.


During this lesson I have tried to give you a glimpse into the world of trading. I have also taken a slightly negative stance, as I don’t want you to get unrealistic expectations of what to expect.

On the more positive side, trading is a fascinating world, which will allow you to really exercise your brain. There is no other arena where you get to play with some of the best minds in the world on a level playing field.

Once mastered, if you can ever use that term then the possibilities are endless. Hopefully I can help you achieve your goals.

Good Trading

Best Regards
Mark McRae
Traders Secret Library

Monday, April 6, 2009

Update on Index Average Daily Ranges

My 1st blog post was on a way to watch the Indexes Average Daily Ranges to know when they are trending outside their normal range on a consistent basis. Here is an update of those charts. It is a clear picture of how they have returned to more normal ranges.

Gold – on the elevator down?

Leaders from the Group of 20 nations (G20) Thursday (4/2/09) endorsed the International Monetary Fund's plan to sell 403 tons of gold to raise funds to support the world's poorest countries.

Read full story at this link:{5ABAE8F2-060D-44BC-9905-EB79665AEACE}

Huge oil finds in USA – but untapped – WHY?

The U. S. Geological Service issued a report in April ('08) that only scientists and oil men knew was coming, but man was it big. It was a revised report (hadn't been updated since '95) on how much oil was in this area of the western 2/3 of North Dakota; western South Dakota; and extreme eastern Montana ....... check THIS out:

1. The Bakken is the largest domestic oil discovery since Alaska 's Prudhoe Bay , and has the potential to eliminate all American dependence on foreign oil. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates it at 503 billion barrels. Even if just 10% of the oil is recoverable, at $107 a barrel, we're looking at a resource base worth more than $5.3 trillion.

'When I first briefed legislators on this, you could practically see their jaws hit the floor. They had no idea.' says Terry Johnson, the Montana Legislature's financial analyst.

'This sizable find is now the highest-producing onshore oil field found in the past 56 years, reports The Pittsburgh Post Gazette. It's a formation known as the Williston Basin, but is more commonly referred to as the 'Bakken.' And it stretches from Northern Montana, through North Dakota and into Canada . For years, U. S. oil exploration has been considered a dead end. Even the 'Big Oil' companies gave up searching for major oil wells decades ago. However, a recent technological breakthrough has opened up the Bakken's massive reserves... and we now have access of up to 500 billion barrels. And because this is light, sweet oil, those billions of barrels will cost Americans just $16 PER BARREL!

That's enough crude to fully fuel the American economy for 41 years straight.

2. and if THAT didn’t throw you on the floor, then this next one should - because it's from TWO YEARS AGO!

U. S. Oil Discovery- Largest Reserve in the World!Stansberry Report online - 4/20/2006

Hidden 1,000 feet beneath the surface of the Rocky Mountains lies the largest untapped oil reserve in the world. It is more than 2 TRILLION barrels. On August 8, 2005 President Bush mandated its extraction. In three and a half years of high oil prices none has been extracted. With this mother-load of oil why are we still fighting over offshore drilling?

They reported this stunning news: We have more oil inside our borders, than all the other proven reserves on earth. Here are the official estimates:

> 8 times as much oil as Saudi Arabia
> 18 times as much oil as Iraq
> 21 times as much oil as Kuwait
> 22 times as much oil as Iran
> 500 times as much oil as Yemen
and it's all right here in the Western United States ...

HOW can this BE? HOW can we NOT BE extracting this? Because the environmentalists and others have blocked all efforts to help America become independent of foreign oil! Again, we are letting a small group of people dictate our lives and our economy....WHY?

James Bartis, lead researcher with the study says we've got more oil in this very compact area than the entire Middle East - more than 2 TRILLION barrels untapped. That's more than all the proven oil reserves of crude oil in the world today, reports The Denver Post.

By the way...this is all true. Check it out at the link below!!!